Casselton, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

516
FXUS63 KFGF 060952
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
352 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind gusts 45 mph thru mid morning within the Red River valley
  with wind advisory in effect.

- Temps return back to above normal values next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

...Synopsis...
500 mb flow north-northwest currently with another shot of cold
air moving in...but this will be brief with 500 mb flow more
westerly as we head into Sunday and into mid next week. The idea
of southwest flow 500 mb into the N Plains seems to be squashed
at the present time as the upper level jet diving into a
developing western US trough drops very far south and almost
cuts off an upper low in NW Mexico. Thus more of a westerly flow
aloft next week. Some weak short waves but idea of a stronger
mid week system seems to be much less of an threat.

After today`s cold shot, warmer air moves eastward into the area
Saturday into western fcst area and all areas Sunday though
winds more south vs the often more favorably west direction
needed for warmth.

There is a short wave likely moving thru central Canadian
prairies Sunday afternoon into early Monday with precip chances
north of the border. Hints, esp from Canadian GEM, indicate a
weak short wave also moving east thru South Dakota into southern
MN with chances for light precipitation. These are shown in the
long term grids with slight chances for light snow Monday night
into Tuesday morning. Dry now in the long term fcst Wed to Fri.
Temps look to run a bit above average Monday-Friday period, but
nothing outrageous with highs most days low 20s to low-mid 30s
from north to south.




...Gusty winds this morning...

Cold front with a wind shift to due north (360 degrees) is
nearing Wahpeton to Detroit Lakes region at 09z. Wind gusts
behind this cold front is 35-38kt within the valley, and this
follows what was shown in the nam bufkit soundings for KGFK and
KFAR with a 3 hour period of peak wind gusts maxed out around
38 kts. The strongest winds are currently mid RRV having moved
into Fargo in the past hour and will drop south into the
southern valley toward 12z. Winds far northern valley into
Winnipeg area showing gusts have tamed down a bit. Will maintain
the wind advisory as is for right now as within the advisory
area there are more than a couple areas with wind gusts 45-47
mph (MN RWIS Warren to EGF to Beltrami to Halstad has shown
these gusts). Sustained winds at times 30-32 mph. So wind
advisory is out and is warranted. Will watch these stronger
winds though exit the area to the south thru 15z...so likely can
end advisory for some a bit early. One negative to getting
higher winds is sfc cold air advection not incredibly strong
with more of a gentle cooling from the mid 30s to upper 20s to
low 20s but this takes 3-4 hours. So not getting an overachiever
in wind with this system despite favorable wind direction down
the valley.

There has been limited snow flurry activity behind this front.
Radars have shown some light returns and evidence of a few HCR`s
Winnipeg area earlier....but sfc vsbys remained above 10SM at
Winnipeg Airport. Kept flurry chances in as previous forecast
into the morning. Dont see any intensity of these flurries to
limit vsbys.

Clearing will work south, and that is shown in satellite with
nose of clearing working south into Winnipeg and also NW Ontario
in area of best cold advection and drier air moving in.






&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1142 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Impacts to aviation are forecast this TAF period from lowered
ceilings, gusty winds, and intermittent visibility reductions.

A cold front moves through the area tonight bringing gusty north
winds 20-35kt, highest at KGFK and KFAR, shortly after 06Z.
These gusty winds last through at least 12Z before gradually
tapering off during the day Friday.

This cold front will also bring lowered MVFR to at times IFR
ceilings. Period in which these lowered ceilings are forecast is
generally through 15Z. There is uncertainty in how long
ceilings linger beyond 15Z, especially at sites like KDVL, KTVF,
and KBJI.

Intermittent snow showers are also forecast between 07Z-12Z,
reducing visibility between 4-6SM, at times perhaps to 1SM
between 08Z-12Z. Visibilities lower than 1SM from snow showers
is a low confidence scenario, however. There is potential in
snow showers lingering until 18Z - again there is low confidence
in how long snow showers will linger into the morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory until noon CST today for NDZ008-016-027-029-030-
     039-053.
MN...Wind Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...CJ